Lakers Repeat? In Terms of Other Contenders...

In order to judge a possible dynasty I feel like u have to look at the other contenders…

The Cavs upgraded with Shaq. The Lakers would have beaten the Cavs pretty easily in 2009 if they made it to the finals, this addition simply puts them in the discussion. But, now the Lakers got better as well (in terms of talent + guarding LBJ). The Cavs are somewhat of a threat, but if we re-sign LO and everyone is healthy we would beat them in a 7 game series.

The Spurs look to be more healthy and added young Richard Jefferson. We beat the spurs in 2008 but Ginobili was a bit injured. It was a close series, but we didn't have Bynum or Ariza. Now that we have Bynum and an upgrade with Artest, if the entire Spurs team can stay healthy, this is a pretty even matchup in my opinion with the Spurs' additions.

The Nuggets haven’t made any big changes yet…and if they don’t, they won’t be a real contender.

The Celtics won the title in '08, but they were pretty unconvincing in doing so, even against LA (except for game 6). They beat us without Bynum and Ariza, and i feel like if we had those pieces we would have been champions in '08. Regardless, they are back to '08 form with KG minus James Posey but with a new-and-improved rondo, plus a Rasheed Wallace. But, Bynum+Artest>>>Wallace, just isolating those pieces, it looks like we would be able to handle them like we didn’t do in 08, because we are MUCH better without the injuries in 08 and the Artest addition, and they are marginally better than the 2008 Celtics (remember the Big 3 are aging as well).

The Magic have lost Turkoglu, Gortat, and Lee, while they’ve added Vince. I think AT BEST they’ve stayed even, and we’ve improved with Artest after already beating them pretty easily in the '09 finals. I think the Lakers would handle them if things don’t change much.

All in all, I see the order of highest threat to repeat to lowest threat as:
Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Nuggets.

The Celtics have a big time player coming back from injury + a new addition, but we didnt have 2 key players when we faced em in '08.

If the Spurs come back healthy and Jefferson is effective, they look scary, but again we beat them in '08 without Bynum and Ariza and now we’ve upgraded Ariza to Artest.

The net change from the 2008 matchup between the Lakers and Spurs becomes:

A healthy Ginobili (injured in '08) + Richard Jefferson VERSUS Bynum + Artest. I'd take Bynum and Artest in that matchup, but even if that is a wash, the Lakers still have the edge after winning in 2008 against the Spurs.

The drop-off after that in my opinion is pretty steep. The Cavs and the Magic are still one piece away.

All-in-all there is a good shot the Lakers can repeat if they stay healthy and driven, but look for other teams to make more moves from now till before the trade deadline in February.

The facts, storylines, and subplots of Shaq to Cleveland

Wow.

A blockbuster trade sending Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland is being finalized. This is just too ticklish. There are so many story lines and subplots and egos and things to prove and legacies and careers hanging in the balance that it would take an entire book to hash them all out.

But I'm going to try and cover some of this filled story.

First of all I don't think this trade carries as much value for Cleveland as it does in star power.

Shaq changes the way the Cleveland offense is going to work. Remember, this offense won 66 games last year, so this is a risk they are taking. Shaq clogs up the middle in ways that LeBron has never had to deal with, and will slow down the offense in a big way. He also doesn't bring the outside shooting and spacing that Z brought at center.

He does bring good things on offense as well, like someone the Cavs can run it through other than LeBron, an offensive rebounding presence, and a markedly missing low-post option. LeBron doesn't have a good post game yet, and their best option last year against the Magic in the playoffs was Delonte West.

Butttt, Shaq is 37 years old. He is entering a contract year, but he has been carrying around a huge amount of weight for a lot of NBA years. He is known to have a lax work ethic and only plays well when motivated. The good thing here is that he might have enough motivation to be effective, but at this point his body may not be able to respond in ways it has in the past.

Shaq is an attention whore, and both him and LeBron are alpha dogs. What happens when two alpha dogs try to co-exist on the same team? Just ask Kobe and Shaq. It was a marriage built by success, and their bond broke apart once the success started fading.

If the Cavs don't do well, or don't do as well as last year, look for problems to come up between the alpha dogs. If they do well, all should remain well on this front unless they lose unexpectedly in the playoffs. Then Shaq is a free agent, LeBron is a free agent, and blame will have to be put somewhere. This story will not end well for Cleveland fans who are pinning all their hopes on getting LeBron back at any cost.

Let's face one simple fact. This was a desperation move by Danny Ferry, the Cleveland GM.

Shaq was dominant for a long time and he is one of the greatest centers ever. He had a short good stint on Phoenix when he was motivated to prove he could still do his thing, but he can't sustain that ability for much longer. This is similar to the move the Lakers made to get Pau Gasol for Kobe, but the difference is that Pau is young and has a bright future, and has no problem playing second fiddle. Shaq doesn't share any of those traits.

Danny Ferry had to give LeBron a reason to believe that Cleveland can give him what he wants not only in terms of love and money, but in terms of a supporting cast. Last year they called off the move before the trade deadline thinking their team was good enough as is. They were wrong. LeBron was obviously upset.

They needed to get him help for this year, and instead of getting Tyson Chandler who they were avidly pursuing and could have had, they went the safer route of getting Shaq who only has one year left on his contract, leaving cap room for the 2010 free agent sweepstakes.

That is fine, but the problem with that thinking is that it assumes LeBron is coming back in 2010. And he might only come back if he has a trusted sidekick already in place this year. Shaq won't be that guy who will be his sidekick long-term.

If the Cavs had gotten Chandler, a young, athletic, big, and they did well, LeBron would have a much easier time staying in a settled, long-term situation than starting over some place else. The problem for the Cavs is that they have basically leveled the playing field, as every other team coveting him is also looking to start fresh with him and whoever he wants.

The obvious counter to this is that the Cavs need to keep it open to make sure they can pursue a big free agent to convince LeBron to stay in Cleveland. If Chandler doesn't work out, they are stuck with his contract and much less room to pursue someone else for LeBron.

Both ways are risky and scary situations for Cleveland fans, but with this move they are basically just using Shaq for one year to get back to the same position they were just in, a year from now.

This seems intelligent, but if I were Ferry I would have used the fact that I have an advantage in the LeBron sweepstakes in that I have him on my team right now. I would have gotten some big that was younger, and less risky than Shaq. I wouldn't have just settled for staying even and waiting for next summer.

But, hey, I'm not a GM of an NBA team so that's just my two pennies worth.

Moving on now to the more fun stuff. The underlying subplots for a bunch of key characters. The stuff that doesn't really pertain to actual basketball:

For Kobe...

This could turn out one of three ways.

1) The Cavs don't do as well as they need to for this trade to be a success, and the Lakers do well. Shaq will look like extra baggage for the second time. Kobe will be spared all the comparisons and probable unfavorable media news cycles. He will gain another notch up on LBJ and Shaq. He was way behind Shaq before this fourth championship, just moved up to right behind even, and this would put him past Shaq. This would also move him further ahead of LeBron.

2) The Cavs win the championship or do well and the Lakers don't. This would be semi-bad news for Kobe. Shaq would move ahead of him and would become the Great Deliverer of championship rings. LeBron would enter the discussion with his first ring, but would probably still be a little under Shaq's shadow, so that would still have to be played out a little bit more.

3) Both teams do equally well or equally badly. If they both do badly, Kobe won't be able to ride last year's championship and will take heat, and the Cavs trade would be a failure. If both do well then Kobe is par per expectations and adds to his legacy of consistency, and the Cavs trade is a success and both LeBron and Shaq look good.

For Dwayne Wade...

1) If LeBron can't win with Shaq, he'll have a leg up on LeBron (even though that sounds weird, I know). Shaq is obviously older now than he was with the Heat, but still, this story would play out like "Dwayne could do it but LeBron couldn't, he got his help and still came up short." All the usual nonsense.

2) If LeBron does win a ring, he'll solidify his ranking above Wade and start challenging Kobe in terms of legacy and championships.

For LeBron James...

1) If he doesn't win, then he should take the blame. I don't know if he will because he is the face of the NBA and a media darling (imagine how much flak Kobe would have taken if he pulled a no-handshake stunt), but he should take it.

In '07, he was young and the team wasn't very good, so making the Finals was more than enough. In '08 they lost to the eventual champions and again expectations weren't that high. In '09 it was the FIRST time in LeBron's career that he underachieved. All through high school and the NBA he had overachieved and surpasses expectations.

In a sense we saw him fail for the first time in relation to expectations when he didn't shake Dwight's hand. This would be a failure and a tough one, so he must exceed whatever expectations the team has, which is probably at least making the Finals.

2) If he does win, he'll become another one in the class of Wade and Kobe who have won with Shaq. It will be his first ring so his legacy will begin, but Shaq's shadow will still be pretty strong (my guess). Regardless, it'll be his Finals MVP and his ring, and he'll have all the media attention from Kobe/Wade and whoever else, and for the first time for the ultimate reason.

For Shaq...

He wants to prove a lot of people wrong. He thinks he can still do it. He wants to win another.

1) If he does win, he'll cement his legacy and would have brought rings to the three best wingmen in the game. He'll be able to boast about how he could deliver rings and teach people how to win and carry teams and blah blah. I'm sure he'll have a lot to say about it. The good thing is that Wade got Finals MVP and LeBron probably would as well, so he wouldn't talk as much as we know he can.

2) If he doesn't win, and HE doesn't play well, he'll take the blame for not delivering for LeBron and his career is basically over.

3) If he doesn't win, and he does play well, he could continue on possibly with LeBron in Cleveland or elsewhere if they don't re-sign him. As long as he isn't the clear-cut reason they don't win he'll be able to maneuver his way into playing longer.

As we can clearly see, a lot of things are on the line for a lot of big-name people. I'd say the most is on the line for Shaq, then LeBron, then Kobe, then Dwayne. Shaq needs to prove he belongs. LeBron has a lot to prove and redeem, but he is still very young and could be starting a new career someplace next year.

Kobe has only recently severed ties with Shaq, but all the talk about their partnership in LA will live on through the LeBron/Shaq partnership and the Kobe/LeBron comparisons. I can't wait to see the puppet commercials on this.

Dwayne is mostly out of the picture because he has gone through injuries and his team badly needs help, but if the Heat can threaten in the East next year, this could get a lot more fun.

Stan Van Gundy would probably take extra pleasure in beating the Cavs in the playoffs again with the guy who called him the "Master of Panic." But that is an if and mostly a caption story.

It is still so ironic and weird to me that the same nutty, talkative, great big man is going to get to play with Kobe, Wade, and LeBron. They will be at similar points in all their three careers and he is going to have such an insight into the debate between the three. He is scarily going to be the most qualified person to speak on the Kobe vs. LeBron vs. Wade debate.

He could compare them in so many ways and create enemies as well as friends. No matter what they might say, you know Kobe and Wade rolled their eyes when they heard about this trade happening, solely because of what they'll have to put up with just knowing the Big Fella and his new situation. He always finds a way to put himself in the discussion. And here's just another example.

Will the Cavs be better for it in 2009-2010? I don't think so, and even if they are it will be marginal all else being equal. Regardless of what analysts will break down and project nobody will really know until the preseason in October and the first few months of the season.

Until then, let's just wait and see how many story lines we can pluck out of this thing.

No Rebounds, No Rings

The Lakers dodged a bullet in Game 2, as they were one Courtney Lee layup away from heading to Orlando for 3 games without homecourt.

Many things went wrong for the Lakers; offensive flow, shooting, foul trouble, turnovers, closing out, and missed calls.

But many things also went right. They did a good job on Howard by crashing in and poking the ball away numerous times for 7 turnovers on the day for D12. Even though he got his numbers he had to work for them.

The Lakers also played the pick and roll pretty well for most of the game, and didn't allow too much penetration. Out of 79 shot attempts for Orlando, 30 of them were behind the arc. The guards for Orlando were a miserable 6-26 shooting. Closing out on shooters quicker is one noticeable thing the Lakers need to improve on for Game 3, as Rashard Lewis kept Orlando in the game by getting hot in the 2nd quarter and carrying that throughout the game.

As for the Lakers' offense, Kobe had too many mental errors (7 turnovers). Also, their offense wasn't as fresh and flowy as it usually is. Kobe, Gasol, and Odom carried most of the scoring load, and the 3rd biggest shooter of the night was Ariza, who went 3-13 for 8 points. The Lakers need more from starters Ariza and Bynum, and the bench, which other than Odom only provided 4 measly points.

The Lakers had 12 steals and 12 turnovers, while the Magic had only 5 steals while amassing 20 turnovers. The Lakers won the defensive battle this time around (41.8% shooting for ORL, still below their average significantly).

The Lakers can do better on a few things, but the list for the Magic seems a little bit longer. There was one reason the Lakers didn't win comfortably like they did in Game 1: Rebounding.

The Magic outrebounded the Lakers by 9, a 23 rebound net swing from Game 1. They also won the offensive rebounding battle 10 to 4. 4 is a disappointing number of offensive rebounds for an entire game in itself (with overtime), let alone with two 7-footers on the court at multiple times in a game. Pau and Bynum had zero offensive rebounds combined, and Pau is usually a good offensive rebounder. He has to get after it more on the offensive glass. A difference of 6 offensive rebounds is 6 more possessions in addition to a huge momentum boost every new opportunity.

The most disappointing stat of all:

Bynum: 16 minutes, 1 rebound.

That kind of production isn't worth $14 million a year, especially when only coupled with as many fouls as points (5).

Game 2 was close as the Magic won the rebounding battle but the Lakers won the steals/turnovers battle, and that will change at home for Orlando. One of the main reasons the Lakers won by 25 in Game 1 is that the Lakers had a good rebounding effort (+14), but if they carry their rebounding from Game 2 on to Orlando, their winning ways might not continue if the Magic take better care of the ball with their expected energy and shooting bump at home.

Cautious Confidence for the Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have played three of their best 5 games of the playoffs in succession, which should give them confidence heading into game 2 (the other two IMO are Houston Game 5 win, Denver Game 6 win). However, members of Laker Nation, especially the ones outside Staples after Game 1, need to take a step back and consult the statistics and game trends before calling for the brooms.

The Lakers had over a 16% FG% differential over the Magic. The only other times in this postseason that kind of a differential has existed have been in games where one team shoots extremely well, like LA did in Game 6 against Denver shooting 57%. One team will shoot above 50% and another team will shoot near 40%. Shooting 30% is unheard of and the Magic will never come close to that again. The Lakers should take some confidence away from their defensive performance, because part of that 30% can be attributed to the Lakers defense. But, they amassed only 7 blocks, 1 less than the Magic did, so the numbers indicate that the Magic missed more than the Lakers made them miss.

Their offensive performance seemed stellar but they only shot a respectable 46%, and when you take away the garbage time from the 4th quarter the Lakers shot a hair over 50%, a far cry from the 57% they shot a game earlier. These statistics are skewed from the 4th quarter where the scrubs didn't play well at all and Kobe heaved up a bunch of shots just to get to 40 (for the first time in Finals), but they do tell a part of the story. Phil Jackson was asked in the postgame whether the Lakers can play better and he wavered around the question, but the truth is the Lakers can and will have to play better to beat a Magic team that even has an average shooting game.

If you up the Magic FG% to 40%, which is still low for an NBA team especially with a guy like Dwight who shoots over 60% usually, that equals 8 more made shots out of the 77 they took. If you assume 2 of those are 3's, that is 18 more points to add to their total. That makes this game look a lot closer than it really was. The media after the game would have you believe that the Lakers crushed the Magic in every way possible, but it might just come down to the Magic making shots post game 1 NBA Finals stage-fright.

A few individual points to note:

Pau Gasol had 8 rebounds in 37 minutes, and needs to do a better job rebounding. Lamar had 14 rebounds in 32, which accounts exactly for the 14 rebound difference in team totals. Early on in the 1st half the Magic seemed to be getting 2 or more looks on many occassions on offense, and when Gasol is out on the floor for 37 minutes he needs to make sure that happens less. Anything less than 10 rebounds means he isn't putting in the effort at 7 feet.

For as much as Bynum is getting lauded for a good defensive game, he only guarded Howard less than half the game (Lamar took a shot at him and Pau got the rest of the assignment). He collected four fouls and seemed to get discouraged when his offensive game was frustrating him (which is usually the case for players like him and Sasha in particular). The problem is, he was frustrated on offense, missing an easy layup and seeming to fumble the ball on multiple occasions. He finished 3-8 which is sub-par for a guy that is capable and has had games of 7-9 and 8-10 shooting.

Also, Howard struggled, but still went to the line 16 times, above his average for the regular season and the playoffs. Much is being made about him only making 1 field goal, but he still finished with 12 points and 15 rebounds. Most of the plays where he would have gotten layups or dunks we fouled him, so the 1-6 field goal line is a bit misleading. Without foul trouble Dwight would have had a 20/20 game.

While the Lakers did win by 25 points, cautious confidence, which Kobe emitted in full (if not in excess) during his postgame conference, should be the word around Staples before Game 2. Kobe Bryant was sensational in the 3rd quarter, and ended up having an average shooting night a little under 50%, but added 8 rebounds and assists a piece. After the game in a response to a philosophical question from a purple-and-gold clad wizard reporter, Kobe said "it's one game. It's no big deal. It's one game." Fans should adopt his face after the game, and share that focus.

Let's wait a few more games before we start calling for the brooms.